ITG Investment Research: Canada to Double Oil Production by 2025
Other key findings:
- Pipeline capacity in the
Western Canada, US Rockies and US Bakken production areas will not keep pace with supply growth over the next four years, requiring incremental rail shipment volumes of 0.6 MMbbl/d even if all planned pipeline projects, such as Keystone XL and Northern Gateway, proceed.
- Oil sands will dominate projected Western Canadian oil production growth, accounting for 64% of incremental production by 2025.
- Bitumen, Cold Flow Heavy and Synthetic Crude accounted for approximately 53% of production additions since 2005. The Cardium play in
Albertaaccounted for 12% of production additions in 2012, while the Saskatchewan Bakken accounted for 7%.
- At assumed rig counts in the
Montney, Horn River Basinand Duvernayplays, Western Canadian raw natural gas production rises to 19 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet/day) (equivalent to 16 Bcf/d of marketable production) by 2025, up 3 Bcf/d compared to today.
- Driven by non-declining Bitumen production growth, the base decline of Western Canadian oil production is expected to fall to approximately 7% in 2025, down from approximately 12% in 2012.
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