ITG Investment Research: Canada to Double Oil Production by 2025

Findings in New ITG Study of Western Canadian Energy Plays

CALGARY, Alberta and NEW YORK, March 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- ITG (NYSE: ITG), a leading independent execution and research broker, today announced the release of a comprehensive report providing a production, supply cost and takeaway scenario, assuming current prices and costs, for Western Canadian oil and natural gas. The 51-page report, No More Guessing: Canada, employs data from over 300,000 wells to analyze 12 plays and forecast Canadian gas, oil and NGL (natural gas liquids) production to 2025. The report estimates that average monthly production additions of approximately 78 Mbbl/d (thousand barrels/day) will push Western Canadian oil production to 5.7 MMbbl/d (million barrels/day) by 2025, doubling oil production compared to today. 

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Other key findings:

  • Pipeline capacity in the Western Canada, US Rockies and US Bakken production areas will not keep pace with supply growth over the next four years, requiring incremental rail shipment volumes of 0.6 MMbbl/d even if all planned pipeline projects, such as Keystone XL and Northern Gateway, proceed.
  • Oil sands will dominate projected Western Canadian oil production growth, accounting for 64% of incremental production by 2025.
  • Bitumen, Cold Flow Heavy and Synthetic Crude accounted for approximately 53% of production additions since 2005.  The Cardium play in Alberta accounted for 12% of production additions in 2012, while the Saskatchewan Bakken accounted for 7%.
  • At assumed rig counts in the Montney, Horn River Basin and Duvernay plays, Western Canadian raw natural gas production rises to 19 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet/day) (equivalent to 16 Bcf/d of marketable production) by 2025, up 3 Bcf/d compared to today.
  • Driven by non-declining Bitumen production growth, the base decline of Western Canadian oil production is expected to fall to approximately 7% in 2025, down from approximately 12% in 2012.

The ITG Investment Research energy team will be hosting a client-only conference call on Wednesday, March 27th, to discuss these findings. For more information on the call and the comprehensive study, No More Guessing – Canada, please email

About ITG Investment Research

 ITG Investment Research covers over 300 companies in more than 20 sectors, and was ranked second overall for analyst quality in Greenwich Associates' 2012 U.S. Equity Research Survey.  The energy research is produced by ITG's dedicated team of Calgary-based geologists, engineers and financial analysts, who cover every major energy play in North America as well as many international plays.  

About ITG

ITG is an independent execution and research broker that partners with global portfolio managers and traders to provide unique data-driven insights throughout the investment process. From investment decision through settlement, ITG helps clients understand market trends, improve performance, mitigate risk and navigate increasingly complex markets. ITG is headquartered in New York with offices in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit

Media/Investor Contact:
J.T. Farley
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